Answer & explanation
One year here is April 2025 to March 2026.
The official answer, with Fermi’s reasoning step by step.
Answer & explanation
Official answer
1.2
cards
How to estimate it
Fermi’s official “Napkin math”
We need to figure out how many Pokémon cards are printed a year, which we could guess by estimating demand. If one in a 100 people buy Pokémon cards (80 million people in the world) and buy ten packs a year, that's 800 million packs. Each English pack has 10 cards, so eight billion cards, which works out perfectly to one card for everyone. I hope mine is Leafeon ex 144/131.
- People who buy cards (1 in 100)
- ≈ 80 million
- Packs each a year
- × 10
- Cards per pack
- × 10
- ÷ 8 billion people
- ≈ 1 card
Rounded assumptions may give a slightly different estimate. The official answer above is the game’s reference value.
Source calculation & reference
- Printed in total by March 2025 (The Pokémon Company)
- 75 billion
- Printed in total by March 2026 (The Pokémon Company)
- over 85 billion
- Printed in the year
- ≈ 10 billion
- 10 billion ÷ 8.3 billion people
- ≈ 1.2
Reference cited by Fermi: The Pokémon Company and the UN, 2026
How close was your guess?
Your comparison will appear here.
Compare by ratio: divide the larger number by the smaller one. The closer to 1×, the better.