3QUESTION 3 OF 3
Answer & explanation
The official answer, with Fermi’s reasoning step by step.
Answer & explanation
Official answer
40,000
watches
How to estimate it
Fermi’s official “Napkin math”
The crux of the question is to guess how many people buy a Swiss watch every year. Switzerland makes most of the luxury watches so maybe 1 in 400? That's 20 million a year. Turned into days, that's 55,000~.
- Buy a Swiss watch a year
- ≈ 1 in 400
- World population
- 8,000,000,000
- 8B ÷ 400
- ≈ 20,000,000 a year
- 20M ÷ 365 days
- ≈ 55,000
Rounded assumptions may give a slightly different estimate. The official answer above is the game’s reference value.
Source calculation & reference
- Wristwatches exported in 2025 (FH)
- 14,599,154
- Days in 2025
- ÷ 365
- ≈ per day
- 40,000
Reference cited by Fermi: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, 2025
How close was your guess?
Your comparison will appear here.
Compare by ratio: divide the larger number by the smaller one. The closer to 1×, the better.